Twitter buyer beware. Why I’m not buying the IPO

Twitter buyer beware. You might have remorse
Twitter reality TV debuts on NYSE Thursday.
I am a twitter user. I would not buy its stock…
At least not until it has a few harsh analysts calls and has some ‘splaining to do. Many recently traded companies don’t survive their first bad earnings call, its likely Twitter will have a few and may need to have a generational restoration of analyst and investor confidence after its IPO (and over allotment) stock has all been placed.
(quick points I have tried to keep under 144 characters)
a. Wall street, long term is a very precise/rational pricing mechanism, thats not good for twtr which has only emotional and optimistic appeal
b. I expect a small pop, and then wide price spikes and dips a few days out
c. Mutual funds dont want to hold, they will purchase it for window dressing, then sell. If it moves higher they can always buy back at higher price, it’s an old game
d. Underwriters will not want to carry an inventory or support the stock, to much volatility on their books
e. FB had shorts (bears) before it even went public talking “overhang from insider stock freeing up””mobile bad news to come””amended disclosure”
f. because of the shorts (bears) in FB, the stock came down to ‘right pricing’ (cos FB and bankers were so greedy they overpriced it) and then went to a premium
g. FB stock ownership was driven by retail buyers. Grandma was buying the stock, and they didn’t sell into the dive, they bought more and gave the stock a floor
h. Twitter ‘dog and pony’ show has been without the scrutiny that Facebook barrelled through.
i. There has been little disclosures beyond what the S1/prospectus revealed. It’s mum with few detractors. Thats not going to last…
j. There is always a tug of war between competing interests long/shorts. Shorts have been strangely quiet
k. Shorts/bears are thinking: “never interrupt your opponent when they are making a mistake”
l. TWTR has (questionable) forecastable upside but much of it is already baked in and the underwriters + Twitter have not left many crumbs on the table for stock buyers
m. Twitter does not have a core of retail users who will ‘buy stock, put under pillow’
n. Many TWTR stock buyers will buy on momentum: When they (finally?) get to breakeven they will be looking for an exit, creating overhang and a bad stock chart with lots of supply
o. Momentum players get hurt first, they always rationalize their purchase and neglect to sell when their trade goes south
p. Just like the FB ‘longs’ (institutional owners) timed when they would get in and fight the batte to move FB higher, TWTR shorts are timing when to come in and bang the stock lower
q. Google stk = BRK.A
r. TWTR = biotech stock in phase 1 clinicals
s. TWTR: its not exclusive content. Many posters just use it as distribution, its a newsboy on a paper route
t. Facebook content is unique and complements its social form
u. TWTR most hard core social media content producers use time shifting services like Buffer, negating chatter, losing engagement
v. use of proceeds? maybe buy a profitable businesses discreetly away from twtr platform
w. ads will not be warmly received, starts migration, analysts will be DRILLING
x. With an eventual scrubbing of egg pics/real user gain +/- = 0 net new users, analysts DRILLING
y. I can buy 50,000 folowers for $50.00
z. it has no true, reliable network effect. There are no artifacts there

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