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Trump Won, What Does That Mean for California?

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In a tumultuous election, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in a huge victory, winning every single swing state and becoming the next president-elect. It’s no secret that the former 45th president holds animosity towards California, a state he deems to be a “symbol of our nation’s decline” as a result of “wokeness” and Democratic governance. Out of all his political opponents, the Golden State is first on the chopping block, with a myriad of policies and plans set in mind to dismantle and disrupt state operations ranging from immigration to the environment to transportation infrastructure. 

The first and arguably most important subject the Trump administration will target is immigration–California has a lot of immigrants, and the state relies heavily on them as part of the labor force, particularly in the agriculture industry. The state is home to about 1.85 million undocumented immigrants, making up about 5% of the state population; documented immigrants amount to 10.4 million (26%), with almost half of all Californian children having at least one immigrant parent. Needless to say, California is heavily dependent on immigrants, with immigrants accounting for almost ⅓ of the state’s labor pool. The powerful Californian agricultural industry, which produces $50 billion each year, is heavily reliant on cheap labor from Latin American immigrants, who make up 65% of low wage workers in the state. It’s evident that immigrants have been a net benefit for the Golden State–cheap labor in industries such as agriculture, retail and other low paying jobs have allowed domestic companies to profit heavily, contributing to the state’s gigantic gross domestic product (GDP). Time and time again, immigration has proven itself to be an incredible boon to the state, as documented by the LA Times. This labor pool, however, is at risk of disappearing when Trump takes office.

In his campaigns, Trump has made promises to use federal agencies and even the military to enforce mass deportation of both documented and undocumented immigrants, with an estimated rate of one million deportations per year across the entire US. On top of this, he also promises to heavily limit immigration along the southern border, impacting the important source of labor that has kept the Californian economy churning. The implications of this are clear: California’s agricultural economy will struggle to maintain the same level of output with a dwindling immigrant labor force; low paying retail and gig jobs will have trouble looking for local workers to replace immigrant ones; and prices will rise across the state and nation as production falls. A New York Times article documents the potential impact that mass deportation may have on food prices, alleging that “the price of milk would nearly double if foreign-born workers were removed from the industry.” This disproportionately impacts California in two ways: firstly, because California has the largest immigrant population in the US in raw numbers, deportation efforts would be mostly burdened by California; secondly, a lack of immigration also jeopardizes the agricultural industry that requires cheap labor in order to maintain an output that supplies the rest of the nation. Without either, California will undoubtedly face a loss in economic growth, but Trump’s plans for the Golden State don’t just stop there.

In a state ravaged by wildfires, droughts and the worst air quality one can find in the entire US, the Trump administration seeks to roll back environmental protections for the state. On the federal level, Trump aims to dismantle government regulation and install a “fossil fuel-based agenda,” which will most definitely clash with a state pursuing one of the most ambitious climate neutral goals in the country. In his first term, Trump withheld disaster aid to fight wildfires in California until he was told about the number of supporters he had in the state. This follows his pattern of directing aid based on the support of the states, rewarding red states and punishing blue ones: besides California, Trump also withheld aid to Washington in 2020, but gave Florida $350 million extra during Hurricane Michael. A lack of aid to fight wildfires would be particularly devastating to California, which saw over 7,600 fires in 2024 alone, burning over one million acres of land. Wildfires in 2020 released over 120 million metric tons of CO2, which outweighed the progress made by CO2 reduction efforts by almost double. Not only does this destroy important wildlife habitats and release millions of metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, but it also leads to dangerous air quality, leading to asthma and other breathing problems. The longer it takes for wildfires to be put out, the worse these effects get, which makes withholding funds all the more hazardous for Californians.

As if air pollution couldn’t get any worse, Trump has pledged to increase oil and gas production as a way to lower gas prices–this is good for car owners, but not so good for California and the environment. California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order that banned the sale of gas vehicles by 2035, requiring all new cars to be zero-emission, an ambitious goal, though it faces many hurdles. Though the state is the largest market for electric vehicles, there is a general lack of EV chargers to supplement the increased demand as a result of the ban. Coupled with declining EV sales, Trump’s efforts to lower gas prices may encourage residents to do the opposite and continue using gas-powered vehicles–a complete disaster for California’s environmental goals. 

The Golden State continues to fight for stronger environmental regulations, but with a looming Trump presidency, these regulations may not come to pass at all; this includes a ban on gas powered yard equipment, phasing out extremely polluting agricultural and construction equipment, and establishing cleaner engine standards for new heavy-duty vehicles according to the LA Times. But with the regulations in legal limbo, vehicle and fleet manufacturers have been reluctant to electrify their products, and without an incentive to switch to EVs, many companies may continue using polluting vehicles instead. Several Californian cities, most notably Bakersfield, Porterville, Visalia and other central valley cities, all dominate the rankings on most polluted cities in the US; without environmental regulations, health problems for Californians are only going to increase with time.

As the party of “small government” and “big business,” Republicans have always been keen on cutting funding for public projects and privatizing whatever they can. The Biden Administration was responsible for authorizing billions of dollars in funding for over 100 projects across the US, including 12 in California such as California High Speed Rail, Capitol Corridor and intrastate Amtrak services. These grants have been essential to the success and improvements of rail travel, and now Trump is seeking to roll back funding for some of California’s most important infrastructure projects. At the top of the list is the High Speed Rail project, which plans to open an initial operating segment between Merced and Bakersfield in the central valley by 2030-2033. The cost of the project has reached an estimated $128 billion for the entire San Francisco–Los Angeles segment, with California shouldering over 80% of the cost; the IOS segment alone is estimated to cost $35.3 billion. The project seeks an additional $4.5 billion from the Trump administration to complete the initial segment, which, needless to say, is practically impossible. In order to complete the project, the state must rely heavily on federal funding to close the gap, but with a looming Trump presidency, the road forward seems difficult in the meantime. This could mean delays in rail infrastructure projects across the state, impacting cities that are seeking to expand their public transit, most notably Los Angeles and the Bay Area. Public transit is a more environmentally friendly way of travel, but obstructing funding for public transit compounds with the previous issue of pollution and air quality. Without robust public transit infrastructure, people are more likely to continue relying on cars and airplanes to get around, contributing to even greater greenhouse gas emissions and worse air quality. Under a hostile administration, it looks like California will have to continue pressing forward alone for the foreseeable future. 

As arguably the most hated state by Republicans, California is likely going to bear the brunt of a hostile Trump administration, but the Golden State isn’t waiting around to let Trump and his staff do whatever he wants, however; a week after the election results, Governor Newsom and State Attorney General Bonta have taken measures to defend the state against any legal actions the Trump administration might bring against them in court. After convening in a special legislative session, Newsom announced appropriating up to $100 million in funds for California’s legal department in preparation to fight with and against lawsuits from the administration–during Trump’s first presidency, California sued the federal government over 100 times, with most of those lawsuits being successful. Bonta has been preparing legal briefs as a precaution against potential Republican efforts to ban abortion, overturn California’s zero-emission goals, and repeal DACA so that when Trump finally takes office in January, “we won’t be flat-footed.” 

Trump’s electoral victory came as a shock to many people, which quickly turned to fear as the implications became clear for many Democrats across the nation. His vicious campaign against immigrants, queer people and political enemies has led many to fear for their safety. Coupled with a Republican “quadfecta,” including the conservative-dominated Supreme Court, Trump’s second presidency may be far more aggressive than his first, with virtually no checks and balances on his power. Trump has begun to take aim at his political targets, with California being the first in his crosshairs. Many of his proposed policies will disproportionately impact California–his promise to deport and restrict immigrants is deleterious for a state whose population is made up of over 1/5th immigrants; his promise to repeal government regulations and increase oil and gas production is noxious to a state with one of the most ambitious environmental goals and some of the worst air quality in the nation; his promise to cut back on federal funding and downsize the government is terrible for a state that relies on monetary assistance to complete large-scale infrastructure projects. With a looming Trump presidency, California is bound to be at the forefront of an onslaught of legal battles, but if there’s one thing California has shown the nation, it’s that the Golden State doesn’t back down from battles. 

Things aren’t over for California yet; with a quick response time and immediate call to action, the state government is ready for a fight, and if Trump’s first administration has shown us anything, it’s that we might win some of them. For a state that prides itself on progress, it sure is ready to defend those values–as Rob Bonta says, “California DOJ did it before and we’ll do it again.”

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